NFL odds Week 3: Warren Sharp’s betting edges on Packers-Bucs, Bills-Dolphins #news

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By Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer

I’m grateful for the chance to proportion weekly research with you proper right here at FOX Sports.

I’ll proportion weekly recaps of what went proper and fallacious for groups, coaches and person gamers. And I’ll proportion recreation previews, mixing mismatches, edges, expectancies and predictions. Yes, a few of it’ll be very nerdy and data-intensive, however I’ll all the time again up and come up with an easy takeaway. 

Hopefully, you’ll learn a recap and say, “I noticed that, but I didn’t realize it was THAT bad!” My function is so that you can learn a preview, watch the sport spread, and say, “Hey, that’s what Warren said might happen!”

Trying to forecast video games approach something: We are within the industry of predicting the long run, and that’s by no means simple. But my function is to offer insights you didn’t know prior to studying. 

With that mentioned, let’s dive into my favourite edges for Week 3 of the season, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Expectations for Tom Brady’s Bucs with depleted WR core vs. Packers? | UNDISPUTED

Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe proportion their expectancies from the Bucs’ offense towards the Green Bay Packers.

Packers @ Buccaneers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

The Green Bay Packers have the prospective to be in for a impolite awakening after they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers protection on Sunday. 

The Packers have performed two of the worst defenses within the NFL so far: No. 30 Vikings and No. 27 Bears

Now they’ll pass up towards the No. 2 protection within the NFL within the Buccaneers, which additionally ranks No. 1 towards the go. But let’s dig in a bit of extra. 

There are sturdy causes to imagine the Packers offense is puffed up, however so is that this Bucs protection.   

Tampa Bay has performed the second-easiest time table of offenses so far (No. 28 Dallas and No. 25 New Orleans) and now is going up towards Green Bay. 

The reality most likely lies within the center. The Bucs protection is forged however not so good as it is appeared so far, and the Packers offense is forged however not so good as it is appeared so far. 

That mentioned, it was once extraordinarily spectacular to peer the Packers rank No. 1 in share of early downs that achieve a primary down. 

Despite now not hanging issues on the scoreboard vs. the Vikings, the Packers offense was once elite within the recreation at averting 0.33 downs. And that endured in Week 2 towards the Bears.   

On 34% of the Packers early down performs, they have transformed a primary down, which is the most efficient mark for any offense within the first two weeks of a season the ultimate two years. 

Adding context makes those numbers much more spectacular, in that the Packers have a smartly under common go charge on those performs. Unlike the Chiefs, for instance, who go the ball ceaselessly, the Packers are the No. 10 maximum run-heavy staff on those early downs. 

It is helping to head towards two bottom-five run defenses to begin the 12 months. And it’ll be attention-grabbing to peer how their speeding works towards a Buccaneers protection that ranks above common vs. runs. 

The Bucs rank No. 9 in EPA/rush to RB-runs on early downs. But they are now with out DT Akiem Hicks, who is superb up the center. 

On the opposite facet of the ball, I imagine Leonard Fournette would possibly have a forged day trip towards the Packers run protection. 

On early down RB-runs, the Packers run protection ranks: 

No. 32 in EPA/att (+0.13) 

No. 31 in good fortune charge (50%) 

No. 30 in yards prior to touch/rush (2.0) 

No. 29 in YPC (6.2) 

These numbers are horrible and got here towards the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings speeding assaults. This is why I imagine the Bucs could have good fortune on the bottom. But the important thing might be whether or not they’ve the endurance to stay with the run early and regularly. 

In prior years, I would not be so certain.   

But in 2022?   

I feel they may. 

On early downs within the first 3 quarters, the Bucs have a go charge of simply 49%. That ranks twenty seventh.   

In 2021, they’d a 65% go charge, which was once No 2. 

In 2020, after they gained the Super Bowl, they’d a 62% go charge, which was once No. 5. 

But that was once when this staff had a wholesome offensive line, which is the rest however the case in 2022. 

Nor do they’ve wholesome large receivers. 

You could be conversant in their primary accidents alongside the offensive line prior to the season. But now they are going to be with out LT change Josh Wells, who was once filling in for LT Donovan Smith, who could also be injured and prone to lacking the sport. They may also be with out WR1 Mike Evans and it is TBD whether or not they’re going to have Chris Godwin or Julio Jones.

The final analysis is Tampa Bay has been compelled to run the ball extra as a result of they are able to’t go offer protection to, nor do they’ve sturdy sufficient receivers. 

And Brady will have to fight on this matchup. Without Mike Evans on the sphere, Brady has averaged 61.6% completions and simply 6.7 YPA. And that was once with guys like Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.   

So I might be expecting a ton of speeding quantity for Fournette, which will be the play to assault the Packers protection the place they are maximum prone. 

But to run, you have to stay the sport shut. 

And because of a better run charge and deficient potency passing, the Bucs shockingly have the NFL’s lowest charge in share of early downs that achieve first downs, at 17.9%. 

As such, this can be a matchup of the best early down offense within the NFL vs. the worst: 

No. 1 Packers – 33.6% first down charge on early downs 

No. 32 Bucs – 17.9% first down charge on early downs 

These two groups are a lot slower-paced than common and run the ball at a far upper charge than common.   

If there are not any brief fields arrange by means of defensive turnovers nor too many explosive performs, I be expecting a quite excessive run charge for each offenses and time-consuming drives. 

ADVICE: First part beneath, however wait till you’ll be able to take hold of 21 

Saints @ Panthers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Baker Mayfield has been blitzed on 33% of his early downs within the first 3 quarters, the fourth-highest blitz charge within the NFL this 12 months. 

And he receives force on the tenth perfect charge (36%). 

On early downs, when Mayfield is blitzed, he ranks No. 20 in EPA/att (-0.09). 

But when he is not blitzed, he ranks eleventh in EPA/att (+0.11). 

And Baker has lengthy since had huge splits vs. force and with out force. Since 2020: 

Vs force: -0.62 EPA/att, 25% good fortune, 5.8 YPA

No force: +0.27 EPA/att, 51% good fortune, 7.6 YPA

Unlike years previous, this Saints protection merely is not getting force. Nor are they blitzing. 

New Orleans is blitzing on simply 8% of QB drops, which ranks thirtieth. 

And they are getting force at a 9.9% charge, which ranks lifeless ultimate within the NFL (avg = 30%). 

Last week, the Bucs performed with out more than one offensive line starters and more than one beginning receivers. And the Saints, enjoying at house, nonetheless were given force on the lowest charge within the NFL. 

If this holds and the Saints fight to get force on Mayfield and blitz as occasionally as they’ve been, it’ll be an enormous exchange for Mayfield. 

In Week 1, Mayfield performed his outdated staff, the Browns.   

They rank No. 6 in force charge this season, recording force on 36% of opponent dropbacks, and feature a league-average blitz charge. 

In Week 2, Mayfield performed the Giants.   

They rank No. 5 in blitz charge this season (37%) and report force at a 27% charge. 

Mayfield has been blitzed and stressed a ton in his first two video games with the Panthers. 

Now, he is enjoying at house towards a staff with the No. 32 force charge and the No. 30 blitz charge? 

This without a doubt is not a very easy protection to head up towards, however there’s a street to check Mayfield can carry out reasonably higher with out force. And if he does now not and struggles as soon as once more, the Panthers will host the No. 31 ranked Cardinals protection subsequent week in what will have to be his ultimate likelihood to both ship for the Panthers or almost definitely price Matt Rhule his process for the reason that subsequent 3 video games will come with the Bucs, Rams and 49ers

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Lions @ Vikings (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

After a street loss, the Vikings are 23-9 SU and 25-7 ATS (78%) at house since 2012. 

That is, by means of a ways, the most efficient ATS report within the NFL. 

And of their ultimate 9 video games, they’re 7-2 to the over. Their offense has averaged over 30 ppg in those contests. 

Last 12 months on my own? 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS and 2-1 to the over, scoring 30-plus issues in every recreation: 

30-17 win over the Seahawks 

36-28 win over the Steelers 

31-17 win over the Bears 

And when the Vikings misplaced on the street, and their offense did not glance nice? 

A great 7-0 for the over within the following week relationship again to 2018. 

Simply put, that is the time to again Kirk Cousins and be expecting him to accomplish smartly. 

Back at house, now not enjoying in primetime, off an embarrassing efficiency, when everyone seems to be leaping send, towards an opponent he is aware of smartly. 

This collection is a huge over collection as smartly, going over in 3 of the ultimate 4 video games, with the Vikings scoring 27-plus issues in each a kind of overs. 

This 12 months, the Detroit Lions made an enormous schematic shift to play extra guy protection. 

In 2021, the Lions performed guy at a 19% charge on early downs within the first 3 quarters, which was once twentieth within the NFL. 

This 12 months, the Lions are enjoying guy on this state of affairs at a 37% charge, which is the No. 1 maximum man-heavy staff within the NFL. 

This bodes smartly for Cousins on this matchup. 

Last 12 months towards the Lions, when Cousins confronted zone protection, he averaged -0.02 EPA/att.   

But when Detroit performed guy, Cousins averaged +0.57 EPA/att. 

Over the ultimate 3 years, Kirk Cousins has been the NFL’s No. 1 quarterback towards guy protection primarily based on EPA/att and ranks first in YPA (9.1). 

On the opposite facet of the ball, this Lions staff clearly desires to run the ball. 

And the Lions at the moment are going up towards the NFL’s worst run protection within the Vikings. 

On early downs within the first 3 quarters vs. RB-runs, the Vikings run protection ranks: 

No. 32 in EPA/rush (-0.16) 

No. 30 in YPC (5.9) 

No. 30 in yards prior to touch/rush (2.1) 

No. 26 in good fortune charge (47%) 

The Lions have performed two horrible run defenses to begin the season however now get a fair worse run protection within the Vikings. 

PICK: Over 53 total points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Bills @ Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Bills protection ranks No. 1 within the NFL, however have a look at who they have confronted. Two groups with below-average offenses (Rams No. 20, Titans No. 29).   

And importantly, neither of those offenses have more than one receiving threats just like the Dolphins now have. 

The Rams have Cooper Kupp, and that’s the reason about it, no less than till they work out a method to get Allen Robinson extra concerned.   

Kupp stuck 13-of-15 goals for 128 yards and 1 TD, sizzling the Bills secondary. But the Rams haven’t any one else with reference to his prowess. 

Their No. 2 goal was once a good finish (Higbee) who had stuck simply 5-of-11 goals. Their No. 3 goal was once a working again. 

And their quarterback was once nursing an elbow damage on his throwing arm this offseason, and his head trainer determined to name an obscenely run-heavy recreation on first down. The runs did completely not anything however arrange the Rams for moment and third-and-long eventualities. 

This previous week, the Bills close down the Titans, who’ve a fair worse receiver state of affairs than the Rams. 

Their No. 1 goal within the recreation was once a rookie enjoying his moment NFL recreation (Treylon Burks). The Titans misplaced all their receiver juice as they dumped A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. And when this staff falls at the back of and can not run Derrick Henry, they’re doomed. 

And now, the Bills are much more banged up within the secondary. 

Buffalo is already with out CB1 Tre’Davious White for a minimum of the primary 4 weeks of the season.   

Starting nook Dane Jackson was once strapped to a backboard on Monday evening in a horrifying damage, carted off and brought to the health center after mendacity immobile the sphere. He’s been launched from the health center however sustained a brutal head/neck damage. 

Starting protection Micah Hyde sustained a neck damage, stayed on the bottom, was once taken to the blue clinical tent after which carted to the locker room. It was once later printed that Hyde, too, was once despatched to the health center to have his neck damage evaluated and was once later launched. 

To struggle this Dolphins offense, the Bills would possibly want to outscore them. 

Fortunately, they have been simply wonderful with doing that vs. the Dolphins. 

In their ultimate seven video games towards the Dolphins, the Bills have scored a minimum of 26 issues and feature averaged an insane 37 ppg. 

Five of those seven video games have long gone over, together with five-of-six when Tua wasn’t injured. 

Miami is 0-7 in those video games and simply 2-5 ATS.   

Buffalo has scored and scored at will. 

And a part of it’s merely the protection that the Dolphins play. 

Miami is, by means of a ways, the No. 1 maximum man-heavy staff within the NFL. Plain and easy, the Fins love enjoying guy.

Last 12 months they have been the one staff to play guy over 40% of snaps, they usually did it at a 46% clip. 

So a ways this 12 months, they are No. 3 within the NFL.   

But even worse for them is how a lot they like to blitz. 

On early downs within the first 3 quarters, Miami blitzes on the No. 2 perfect charge of any protection.  

But they get force on the No. 2 lowest charge of any protection. 

That’s a deadly mixture and is a huge reason this protection is the No. 2 worst protection towards the go this 12 months, and that features a recreation vs. Mac Jones

Miami has allowed a league-high 12.2 yards in line with finishing touch to this point this 12 months. It’s been an abysmal go protection. And one ill-suited to stand Josh Allen

Against the blitz this 12 months, Josh Allen ranks: 

No. 1 in sack/INT charge 

No. 2 in first down charge 

No. 3 in TDs thrown 

No. 4 in good fortune charge 

No. 5 in YPA 

No. 6 in EPA/att 

Josh Allen additionally ranks top-10 vs. guy protection. 

The final analysis is what Miami desires to do defensively merely does now not paintings towards Josh Allen. 

PICK: Over 52.5 total points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Ravens @ Patriots (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

An enormous conflict in kinds might be observed in New England on Sunday. 

When being blitzed presently, Mac Jones has only a few solutions, while Lamar Jackson has the solution key. 

When blitzed to this point this season, Lamar Jackson ranks: 

No. 3 in EPA/att, No. 4 in good fortune charge and No. 1 in YPA 

Out of 34 quarterbacks, Mac Jones ranks No. 34 in EPA/att, No. 20 in good fortune charge and No. 17 in YPA. 

On early downs within the first 3 quarters, the Ravens have the ninth-highest blitz charge (30%) and get force on the Fifteenth-highest charge. 

This may not make Mac Jones glance just right, and they’d be sensible to extend their blitz charge even upper. 

The Patriots blitz on the fourth-lowest charge within the NFL and get force at a below-average charge. New England can be smart to deal with this low blitz charge. 

NFL analyst Warren Sharp joined FOX Sports for the 2022 NFL season. Throughout the 12 months, he will recap the highest video games of the week and sit up for the numbers that may come up with a betting edge. 

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