The Fed is not the stock market’s friend right now: Morning Brief

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Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Today’s publication is by means of Sam Ro, the writer of Follow him on Twitter at @SamRo.

One of the Federal Reserve’s maximum telling statements about markets got here from Chair Jerome Powell on June 15 when the central financial institution introduced its largest fee hike since 1994:

“Over the course of this year, financial markets have responded and have generally shown that they understand the path we’re laying out.”

When Powell stated that, the S&P 500 had already fallen by means of greater than 20% from its Jan. 4 prime.

In different phrases, Powell all however showed that the 2022 marketplace rout was once precisely what he and his colleagues sought after.

If that wasn’t transparent sufficient, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari echoed that sentiment on Aug. 29 when he stated he was “happy” to see the stock market fall. That got here after Powell reiterated his dedication to battle inflation — even though it intended “some pain to households and businesses.”

Image: Courtesy of Sam  Ro
Image: Courtesy of Sam Ro

By the method, this isn’t the first time Powell used “pain” to explain what it would take to convey down inflation. At a Wall Street Journal event on May 17, he stated: “There could be some pain involved in restoring price stability.”

To recap, inflation has been constantly prime. To get costs underneath keep watch over, the Fed believes call for has to chill in the economic system. In order to get call for to chill, the Fed is pulling the levers of rates of interest to tighten monetary prerequisites, which makes it dearer for companies and shoppers to finance stuff. Tighter monetary prerequisites come with upper rates of interest, a more potent greenback, and decrease stock valuations.

This speaks to the conundrum in markets: As lengthy as inflation is uncomfortably prime, the Fed will act in tactics which can be unfriendly to stock costs.

And as we discovered from last week’s August CPI report, inflation stays uncomfortably prime.

This units us up for this week’s FOMC assembly hung on Tuesday and Wednesday. Unless the Fed hastily broadcasts a metamorphosis in its solution to combating inflation, be expecting a hawkish announcement.

It’s conceivable that markets may interpret Powell’s message on Wednesday as coming off dovish, which is what happened after July’s FOMC meeting. If that’s the case, don’t be shocked to look Fed officers pop out and reiterate that the Fed has a long way to go to succeed in its long-run goal inflation fee of two%.

What to Watch Today

Economic calendar

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Building lets in, August (1.610 million anticipated, 1.674 million throughout prior month, revised to at least one.685 million)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Building lets in, month-over-month, August (-4.8% anticipated, -1.3% throughout prior month, revised to -0.6%)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Housing Starts, August (1.445 million anticipated, 1.446 throughout prior month)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Housing Starts, month-over-month, August (0.3% anticipated, -9.6% throughout prior month)


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